Staying With Uncertainty During Challenging Times
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Insights Into Practices: Staying With Uncertainty
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A Poem, by William Stafford
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What I’m Watching
“Logic will get you from A to B. Imagination will get you everywhere.”
– Albert Einstein
I almost quit watching the game. In a recent Final Four college basketball match, Duke was leading Houston by 7 points with just over a minute to play. Duke was ahead the entire game and seemed like the better team. Houston won 70 – 67.
Our brains can’t help make predictions. In daily life, predictions make it possible to survive. When we get out of bed in the morning we predict where the floor will be, and where the bathroom door is located. We predict (consciously and unconsciously) who we are, what will happen next, and what our life will look like for the day, weeks, and future. We are amazing predictors, and at the same time we are terrible at predicting the future, especially as we move away from our own lives to other’s lives and to the larger events of the world.
Human thinking, and especially predictions are flawed when it comes to understanding randomness, risk, and uncertainty. We tend to:
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Over-rely on what we know
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Underestimate what we don’t know
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Assume the future will look like the past
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Catastrophize during times of uncertainty
Who would have ever predicted Donald Trump as president. Trump was elected president once — impossible. Twice, incredibly impossible. And who would have predicted Barack Obama. Barack Obama was elected once, and twice — also impossible! Who would have predicted either of these events?
Right now, (and almost always) it is easy, and perhaps prudent to predict catastrophe. It’s better to be prepared than unprepared for catastrophic events. That’s the beauty and importance of the negativity bias – it’s better to predict the worst and have these predictions not come true. The problem with this is the toll it takes on our nervous systems, our sense of ease, and in our ability to see more clearly. And, it gets in the way of seeing and appreciating the countless positive things in our lives.
Right now, during these particularly chaotic times, I’m doing my best to not avoid seeing and feeling as fully as possible, and at the same time staying with uncertainty.
We really don’t know what will happen next. This is always true, but this truth comes into play as more important during less predictable times, like now. Donald Trump is many things, but one of his real talents is his ability to create chaos.
So what?
Practice
Notice how you predict the future, usually with a good dose of negativity bias and fear. We humans are hardwired to scan for threats. It’s essential for keeping us safe and alive.
At the same time, explore staying with uncertainty. Try on staying with not knowing what will happen next. Start with yourself, with how you think about your own success and failure, or any limited story that you tell about yourself.
Then, extend not knowing to the people around you. Be more curious. What is your partner’s experience, or your children, parents, friends? Explore making less assumptions and more real inquiry.
Try extending not knowing to the world around you.
And, explore noticing and appreciating the “little” things – the taste of an apple, the movement of the clouds, your feet touching the floor.
The Practice is to be really good at predicting the future, and at the same time to stay with uncertainty; and appreciating being alive.
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A Poem
Our Story, by William Stafford
Remind me again—together we
trace our strange journey, find
each other, come on laughing.
Some time we’ll cross where life
ends. We’ll both look back
as far as forever, that first day.
I’ll touch you—a new world then.
Stars will move a different way.
We’ll both end. We’ll both begin.
Remind me again.
What I’m Watching
Dying For Sex – I’ve only watched the first few episodes and am really enjoying this series. It’s based on a true story. With heart and humor, it portrays the quest to be fully human in the midst of impermanence.
Warmest regards,
Marc